Why Trump Loses in 2020

Hint: it’s not because of facts.

As of August 2016, Hillary Clinton was doing well in the polls. At the conclusion of the convention, she had a 7.5 point lead in the national polls. Yet, I bet against her then, as I did all the way back to March of 2016 as Ted Cruz was going down in flames. As early as March, I was betting Trump would win.

My friends were aghast and full of ridicule. Despite my reassurances that my bet had nothing to do with my preference, they just couldn’t believe this prediction. Certainly none of it was based on trends…