Why Trump Loses in 2020

Hint: it’s not because of facts.

As of August 2016, Hillary Clinton was doing well in the polls. At the conclusion of the convention, she had a 7.5 point lead in the national polls. Yet, I bet against her then, as I did all the way back to March of 2016 as Ted Cruz was going down in flames. As early as March, I was betting Trump would win.

My friends were aghast and full of ridicule. Despite my reassurances that my bet had nothing to do with my preference, they just couldn’t believe this prediction. Certainly none of it was based on trends. If I’d followed FiveThirtyEight during 2016, I would have been told betting on Trump would have been a risky bet. Besides, my friends said: He’s an oaf! A misogynist! A bigot! A con man!

Dear readers, despite all of my love for facts, integrity, and country, that bet on Trump was just plain gut and instinct. It was simply based on Trump’s efficient slander and destruction of his opponents. Lyin’ Ted! Low-Energy Jeb! Meanwhile all the while promoting his Make America Great as a panacea for the country’s troubles. I knew that the general election was going to be harder, but the same: Crooked Hillary!

Fast forward to 2020.

Swing Voters: A Tired But True Thing

Here we are again, looking at polling figures, as of August, courtesy of NPR: